The coin flip, the ultimate 50-50 choice, is actually a little biased. According to a Stanford study, even a fair coin is about 51 per cent likely to land on the same face it started on. And if you spin instead of flipping, even a slightly weighted coin is much more likely to land on its heavier side. (A spun penny lands tails-up 80 per cent of the time.) But there's a cool maths trick for getting a fair result from an unfair coin.
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Misusing statistics is one of the most powerful ways to lie. Normally, we teach you how to avoid misinterpreting statistics, but knowing how numbers are manipulated can help you spot when it happens. To that end, we're going to show you how to make data say whatever the hell you want to back up any wrong idea you have.
Just how likely does "probably" sound to you? To some people, "probably" means that something is practically locked in. To others, it means the likelihood of something happening is highly dubious. This graph assigns percentage values to a range of common phrases relating to probability. Turns out you should say "almost certainly" instead of "probably" if you want to minimise doubt.