Since 2007, the Macquarie equity quant team has been sharing its picks for the winner of the Melbourne Cup, based on extensive modelling from scores of factors. For the 2019 Melbourne Cup, their hot tips include a gelding from the UK, an Irish stallion and an Australian-bred surprise contender.
But which one should you bet on? Here is the Macquarie equity quant team's top pick!
Macquarie Bank’s quant team haven't had the best track record at picking the Melbourne Cup winner of late. But plenty of punters still take their model very seriously. In 2018, the quant team made some changes in their model using the five most important quant styles:
- Value – cheapness, what you get for the price
- Momentum – what is working, what is getting better?
- Sentiment – what everyone is looking for right now, what people like
- Quality – what is the best, the most reliable?
- Innovative Data – what other data sources gives us an information edge
"Our preferred strategy is one that places a bet on the top horses in our model. We also aim for the trifecta using the top quartile of horses. This strategy mirrors the way Quantitative strategies are applied to equity investing," the quants told clients yesterday afternoon.
According to the quant team's model, the horses most likely to win the 2019 Melbourne Cup are:
- Surprise Baby
- Vow and Declare
- Cross Counter
- Mer De Glace
And here's the full table:
Surprise Baby is currently sitting on odds of around $15 - which makes it a tasty little bet if the quants are on the money. (If you're going to take a punt, don't bet more than you can afford to lose.) Good luck!