More Rain and Above-Average Temps: What’s on the Way for Aussie Weather?

If you’ve been keeping even a casual eye on the weather updates for the past few months (or, y’know, have been outside) you’ll be aware that old mate La Niña has been putting Australia through its paces. The weather has been interesting, to say the least, and according to the latest update from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), there’s more to come.

How’s the current weather forecast looking for Australia?

The latest forecast from the BOM Australia states that for most of the country, the wet weather and above-average temperatures will continue for the coming months. This trend appears to be consistent across the country, except for the south-east of Australia, which is predicted to see slightly cooler weather.

Wet weather is likely to continue for east #Aus in Feb-Apr. Most parts of the country may see warmer days in the coming months, but the south-east will be cooler. Warm nights expected nationwide. More info: https://t.co/wThg2byRSK pic.twitter.com/xUEpmFYbid

— Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@BOM_au) January 27, 2022

The overall climate outlook from the BOM for February to April 2022 reads as follows:

• February to April rainfall is likely to be above median for much of eastern Australia, while below-median rainfall is likely for parts of inland Western Australia and north-east SA.
• February to April maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for much of the west, south and north-east, with southern parts of the east coast likely to be below median.
• Minimum temperatures for February to April are likely to be warmer than median Australia wide.
• The La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, and the neutral-to-near-positive state of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are likely influencing the rainfall outlooks.

What’s the deal with La Niña right now?

The latest update from the BOM in this space came on January 18, in which the bureau stated it believes the La Niña weather event may be coming to a close in the months approaching.

The BOM wrote:

Climate models suggest the 2021–22 La Niña is near or at its peak, with a return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) likely early in the southern hemisphere autumn.

Autumn is the typical time of the year in which ENSO events decay and return to neutral. La Niña increases the chance of above average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia during summer.

From this, we can assume that somewhere in Autumn (March-May), we can expect La Niña to wrap on up.

Other Aussie weather events to take note of

There have been a number of severe weather warnings issued by the BOM in recent days with a monsoon bringing very heavy rainfall to North Queensland on January 27, humid and stormy conditions for south eastern Australia and a once-in-200-year weather event in SA, with outback flooding impacting rail lines that connect the state with Perth and Darwin.

So, there you have it. Aussie weather is looking like it may continue to be a little rough for a while longer, we’re afraid. Keep packing that umbrella.

We’ll be sure to update this piece with any relevant news about weather forecasts in Australia for the coming months.