Christmas Day Weather Forecasts Are In, and Santa Better Pack an Umbrella

Christmas Day Weather Forecasts Are In, and Santa Better Pack an Umbrella
Image: Getty

I must inform you that Christmas Day is currently speeding around the corner. I guess that’s what happens if you spend a good chunk of the year stuck inside your home, hey? Anyway. No matter how you’re choosing to spend the Christmas season this year, it’s always a good idea to keep an eye on the weather if you’re trying to plan.

Christmas Day and Boxing Day weather can be hit or miss in Australia. Some years we’ll get bloody hot summer’s days and others we’re kept indoors by loads of rain. So how does the holiday weather for 2021 stack up?

What’s the weather outlook for Christmas Day and Boxing Day?

Christmas day weather australia 2021
Christmas day weather Australia. Getty

We’ve been updating this piece across the entirety of the holiday season so far, but now with Christmas within arm’s reach, we can start to see some more reliable forecasts for the period.

Of course, we’ll continue to update this piece as more weather forecasts for Christmas Day, Boxing Day and the rest of the holiday period roll out for 2021. But for the moment, here are the key points to take note of:

The below quotes are taken from the Bureau of Meteorology regarding the coming weeks and summer months:

  • The fortnight from 20 December 2021 to 2 January 2022 has a generally mixed outlook for rainfall, with patches of wetter than median along the eastern coast of Australia, and drier than median in patches elsewhere. Maximum temperatures are also likely to be below median for the southern half of Australia in this fortnight.
  • The La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, the positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the strengthening MJO over the western Pacific are likely influencing the above median rainfall outlooks.
  • January to March rainfall is likely to be above median for eastern Queensland and north-eastern NSW, as well as small patches elsewhere. Much of this area is likely to receive rainfall in the top 20% of historical records.
  • January to March maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for most of Australia, except parts of eastern Australia and the southern coastline of WA where the outlook is either mixed or below median.
  • Minimum temperatures for January to March are likely to be warmer than median nationwide.
  • There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for January to March over all of Australia (1.5 to more 4.0 times the usual chance), with the highest likelihoods for northern Australia and north-western Tasmania.

So, yeah. The broad outlook is that the coming summer months will be hotter and wetter for a good chunk of Australia. Fingers crossed it doesn’t impact your holiday plans too much!

Christmas Day weather predictions for 2021

AccuWeather has an early weather forecast for all the major Australian cities for Christmas Day and Boxing Day in 2021. While it can probably be expected these predictions will change, here’s what we have so far.

Sydney Christmas weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 20-27 °C
  • Weather: Shower or two
  • Chance of rain: 50%
  • Wind: East

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 20-29 °C
  • Weather: Partly cloudy; sunshine
  • Chance of rain: 30%
  • Wind: North East

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 21-27 °C
  • Weather: Showers increasing
  • Chance of rain: 80%
  • Wind: South

Brisbane Christmas weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 22-29 °C
  • Weather: Showers
  • Chance of rain: 80%
  • Wind: South East

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 22-28 °C
  • Weather: Showers
  • Chance of rain: 80%
  • Wind: East

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 21-27 °C
  • Weather: Showers
  • Chance of rain: 90%
  • Wind: East

Melbourne Christmas weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 13-26 °C
  • Weather: Sunny
  • Chance of rain: 0%
  • Wind: South

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 15-24 °C
  • Weather: Mostly sunny
  • Chance of rain: 5%
  • Wind: South West/South

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 14-20 °C
  • Weather: Partly cloudy
  • Chance of rain: 5%
  • Wind: South

Darwin Christmas weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 26-33 °C
  • Weather: Showers; possible storm
  • Chance of rain: 80%
  • Wind: Light

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 25-31 °C
  • Weather: Showers; possible storm
  • Chance of rain: 95%
  • Wind: South East/South

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 24-30 °C
  • Weather: Showers; possible storm
  • Chance of rain: 95%
  • Wind: South/South West

Adelaide Christmas weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 14-31 °C
  • Weather: Sunny
  • Chance of rain: 0%
  • Wind: South West/ South East

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 15-27 °C
  • Weather: Partly cloudy
  • Chance of rain: 0%
  • Wind: South East

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 13-27 °C
  • Weather: Sunny
  • Chance of rain: 0%
  • Wind: South East

Hobart Christmas weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 11-24 °C
  • Weather: Partly cloudy
  • Chance of rain: 10%
  • Wind: South East/East

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 15-21°C
  • Weather: Partly cloudy
  • Chance of rain: 20%
  • Wind: North West/ West

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 11-18 °C
  • Weather: Partly cloudy
  • Chance of rain: 10%
  • Wind: West/ South West

Canberra Christmas weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 14-26 °C
  • Weather: Cloudy
  • Chance of rain: 10%
  • Wind: North East/East

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 14-31 °C
  • Weather: Partly cloudy
  • Rain: 30%
  • Wind: East

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 15-25 °C
  • Weather: Shower or two
  • Chance of rain: 50%
  • Wind: East/ South East

Perth Christmas weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 21-29 °C
  • Weather: Very hot and sunny
  • Chance of rain: 0%
  • Wind: South West/South East

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 23-42 °C
  • Weather: Very hot and sunny
  • Rain: 0%
  • Wind: East/North East

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 27-42 °C
  • Weather: Very hot and sunny
  • Chance of rain: 0%
  • Wind: East

All-round it looks like Australia will be a bit of a mixed bag on Christmas day. There are a few mentions of clouds and rain, we’re sorry to say. But, as we mentioned earlier, bear in mind this is the weather and it will probably change in the lead up to the big day.

This article on Christmas and Boxing Day weather 2021 has been updated since its original publication date.

Comments

  • Could you clarify, if when they say “20% chance of rain” it actually means:
    1. The country is arranged into a grid, and 20% of your grid square will see rain, while the remaining 80% won’t?
    Or…
    2. Everyone across the region has a 20% chance of experiencing rain? In which case, that’s effectively 50/50 as rain will either happen or it won’t at an individual level.
    Hope that makes sense?

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