Christmas Weather: Here’s What Seasonal Predictions Can Tell Us So Far

Christmas Weather: Here’s What Seasonal Predictions Can Tell Us So Far
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I must inform you that Christmas Day is currently speeding around the corner. I guess that’s what happens if you spend a good chunk of the year stuck inside your home, hey? Anyway. No matter how you’re choosing to spend the Christmas season this year, it’s always a good idea to keep an eye on the weather if you’re trying to plan.

Christmas Day and Boxing Day have traditionally been bloody hot summer’s days in Australia, sometimes with rain to cool it down in the evening. So how does 2021 stack up?

What’s the weather outlook for Christmas Day and Boxing Day?

As you’re probably assuming, the details we currently have are pretty loose. We do still have a few weeks to go, after all. But we do have some initial predictions, and an indication of what we can expect from the summer months more generally, which can act as a guide.

Naturally, we’ll update this piece as more weather forecasts for Christmas Day, Boxing Day and the rest of the holiday period begin rolling out for 2021. But for the moment, here are the key points to take note of:

The below quotes are taken from the Bureau of Meteorology:

  • December to February rainfall is likely to be above median for parts of eastern Australia, with highest chances for eastern Queensland.
  • December to February maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for most of Australia, with below median daytime temperatures likely for eastern NSW.
  • There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures (in the top 20% of historical records) for December to February for much of Australia away from the east (1.5 to 3.0 times the usual chance).
  • Minimum temperatures for December to February are very likely to be warmer than median for most of Australia, with south-eastern WA and south-western SA having roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than median nights.
  • The La Niña in the Pacific Ocean and the positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) state are likely influencing the above median rainfall outlooks.

So, yeah. The broad outlook is that the coming summer months will be hotter and wetter for a good chunk of Australia. Fingers crossed it doesn’t impact your holiday plans too much!

Christmas Day weather predictions for 2021

AccuWeather has a very early weather forecast across all the major cities for Christmas Day and Boxing Day in 2021. While it can probably be expected these predictions will change, here’s what we have so far.

Sydney weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 20-24 °C
  • Weather: Mostly cloudy; thunderstorms
  • Chance of rain: 84%
  • Wind: East/South East

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 20-24 °C
  • Weather: Cloudy and humid with showers and thunderstorms
  • Chance of rain: 55%
  • Wind: South East

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 19-26 °C
  • Weather: Mostly cloudy; showers and thunderstorms
  • Chance of rain: 55%
  • Wind: North East

Brisbane weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 22-28 °C
  • Weather: Humid; cloudy
  • Chance of rain: 25%
  • Wind: East

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 22-29 °C
  • Weather: Sunny; partly cloudy
  • Chance of rain: 20%
  • Wind: East

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 21-28 °C
  • Weather: Cloudy; showers
  • Chance of rain: 55%
  • Wind: East/South East

Melbourne weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 17-24 °C
  • Weather: Partly sunny
  • Chance of rain: 20%
  • Wind: South East

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 17-27 °C
  • Weather: Mostly sunny
  • Chance of rain: 20%
  • Wind: North

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 15-28 °C
  • Weather: Mostly cloudy
  • Chance of rain: 25%
  • Wind: West/South West

Darwin weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 25-33 °C
  • Weather: Cloudy; showers
  • Chance of rain: 62%
  • Wind: West

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 25-33 °C
  • Weather: Cloudy
  • Chance of rain: 25%
  • Wind: West/ South West

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 24-35 °C
  • Weather: Showers; partly cloudy
  • Chance of rain: 55%
  • Wind: East

Adelaide weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 17-30 °C
  • Weather: Mostly sunny; cloudy periods
  • Chance of rain: 0%
  • Wind: South/South East

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 19-30 °C
  • Weather: Mostly cloudy
  • Chance of rain: 1%
  • Wind: South East

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 17-31 °C
  • Weather: Mostly cloudy; showers
  • Chance of rain: 40%
  • Wind: East/South East

Hobart weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 13-19 °C
  • Weather: Partly sunny
  • Chance of rain: 1%
  • Wind: South/South East

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 13-21 °C
  • Weather: Partly sunny
  • Chance of rain: 16%
  • Wind: East/North East

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 14-22 °C
  • Weather: Partly cloudy with showers
  • Chance of rain: 40%
  • Wind: East

Canberra weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 10-25 °C
  • Weather: Partly sunny
  • Chance of rain: 0%
  • Wind: East

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 13-26 °C
  • Weather: Mostly cloudy; showers
  • Rain: 55%
  • Wind: East

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 14-25 °C
  • Weather: Mainly cloudy with showers, thunderstorms
  • Chance of rain: 84%
  • Wind: South East

Perth weather

Christmas Eve:

  • Temperature: 17-26 °C
  • Weather: Partly sunny
  • Chance of rain: 2%
  • Wind: South

Christmas Day:

  • Temperature: 17-29 °C
  • Weather: Partly sunny; thunderstorms
  • Rain: 55%
  • Wind: South/South East

Boxing Day:

  • Temperature: 17-29 °C
  • Weather: Mostly cloudy; thunderstorms
  • Chance of rain: 56%
  • Wind: South/South East

All-round it looks like Australia will be a bit of a mixed bag on Christmas day, there are a lot of mentions of clouds and rain, we’re sorry to say. As we mentioned earlier, however, bear in mind this is the weather and it will probably change in the lead up to the big day.

This article on Christmas and Boxing Day weather 2021 has been updated since its original publication date.

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