Hard Drives Might Cost 10% More By 2013

We've already seen the impact of flooding in Thailand on hard drive prices. That's likely to continue this year, with one analyst suggesting drive prices for consumers will rise between 10 and 15 per cent by 2013.

Coughlin Associates notes that while demand for drives is still strong despite the rise of SSD, production capacity simply can't keep up:

We believe that the results in the Thailand flooding will likely be about 20-30% average price increases over the average sales price (ASP) of HDDs before the flood through most of 2012. With consolidation and continued shortages it is expected that average HDD prices could be 10-15% higher than before the flood in 2013 and later years which will benefit the capital equipment industry for HDDs.

10 per cent is not an outrageous increase, and drive capacities are already so large that it would be hard to argue a hard drive is poor value. But if you are in the market for a drive soon, accept that it might not be quite as cheap as in the recent past.

Coughlin Associates (PDF)


Comments

    or Solid State Drives could cost 10% less.

    Long report. Doesn't stack up in my mind.
    Look at http://www.camelegg.com/product/N82E16822148681
    it tracks HDD prices on newegg.com. the graph shows falling prices all 2011 until the flood, then a huge spike, and now falling again.
    Same with WD http://www.camelegg.com/product/N82E16822136514
    As more production comes online, and SSD'd increase market share, commin drives such as 2tb will drop in price. Of course the most common drive early this year may be a 1tb, and in 2013 it maybe 2tb, and the 2tb in 2013 may cost a little more than the 1tb of 2012, but then thats not apples with apples.

    Scam excuse most likely driven by the computer industry to try max profits where possible.

    It's sound to me a bit of the "Oh the price of cucumbers have gone up because of... um... Qantas going on strike.. yeah.. thats right... Qantas..".

    When production goes back to normal, price will go back to normal, simple logic.

    @ Dennison, That is not true. Prices don't care about production levels, prices care about demand and supply. When supplu exceeds demand price will drop.

    In this case there is probably a backlog and therefore atm the demand is higher than usual

    The very same Samsung 1Tb drive that was previously $59 at NE, is now $159. I have a simple enough way to deal with this: I wont buy any hard drives till they come down significantly. If other people did the same - and consumers drive the demand more than businesses do - you'd be shocked how quick prices would return to normal.

    I believe the prices will be back to normal around April 2013. Especially since there will be a third player to produce 88.9 mm hard disk drives. Toshiba.

Join the discussion!