A Little Guide To Making Better Guesses

A Little Guide To Making Better Guesses

Throughout life, you are constantly guessing what your next step in whatever you are doing should be. Though there are no hard and fast rules, you can follow a few tips to make the best choices while “guessing” your way in life.

Picture by latitudes

The key to making the best guesses, according to Tyler Tervooren over at Advanced Riskology, is to make a lot of tiny guesses with minimal viable risk.

Taking tons of tiny guesses, without risking it all, is a good way to find out that one idea that makes it big. Once you find it, run with it.

Ever since I started this site, I’ve struggled to decide which is better: to start something with a small step or a big one. Small steps are easy, but big steps are exciting.

I think I’ve finally found my answer, and it’s a compromise: Start with a tiny step and then, if it works, follow it up immediately with an enormous one. Take the smallest action possible to give yourself your own proof of concept, then start the shock and awe campaign.

A Little Guide To Making Better Guesses


  • Some people who like to optimise their decisions (like me) end up endlessly problem solving, trying to evaluate each option to the last decimal place.
    It is good if we can recognise when there may be 3 feasible solutions with different positive outcomes and little difference between them.
    At that point we need to make a decision, not problem-solve further, i.e. to guess and pick a solution, knowing that often we can back-track or adjust if our path has some hidden “gotcha” on it.
    If there are multiple desirable choices to be made, with not much between them, the decision is not likely to be a high risk one, and not worth spending more time on.

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